Case Studies

The growing demographic bubble is ramping up the pressure on all services for the elderly, although homecare has seen a small decline recently, and it is difficult to see how this pressure will be released without placing a massive burden on existing services. It is a fact that care is needs driven, not budget driven and just because local authority budgets are being squeezed does not mean that people will conveniently wait in line, they need care immediately, so the money will have to be found from somewhere to pay for it. Yes, we have the government’s proposals for funding long term care, but the fact of the matter is that a system which is fair for all and accessible will have to be put in place sooner rather than later, before the current system grinds to a halt.

So, taking these factors into account, now would be the ideal time to develop new care homes, when land prices are low and construction prices are very favourable. However, it is still vital that you research every opportunity thoroughly, from a perspective of demand; quality of competition, local authority fee rates/prevailing private fee rates and the local authorities’ plans for the future to ensure that you have every chance of success. 

Case 1.

As an example, we recently looked at a site where the identified demand within a three mile radius was 527, the existing supply was well in excess of this at 721, with a high proportion of these being purpose built albeit older stock. To compound this, there were two other development sites within the three miles, both of which had already been granted planning permission and between them they would provide some 139 beds.  Whilst the modern quality argument that a new home will possibly take the lion’s share of new referrals and draw residents from existing homes is acknowledged, it is also a matter of critical mass in the demand, which will determine when, if and how quickly a new home will fill. To see the statistics please click here.

Case 2.

By comparison, another report we concluded recently in a less densely populated setting, showed much lower demand and supply levels, but in this case, demand was 267 against an existing supply of 209, all of which were conversions. This site had the benefit of a shortage of beds in the area and no purpose built, modern, fit for the future competition, or planning for such. The site has now been acquired and construction is due to commence imminently. To see the statistics for this location, please click here.

In short, now is a good time to develop, but you still need to ensure that you have researched the opportunity fully before committing. Take proper professional advice at the outset so that you know what you are taking on.

Please contact us if you would like any more information, or would like to view a specimen copy of a full Needs Analysis and Competition report. contact-us

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